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Examination with Cross-Correlation Analysis of the Time-Lagged Relationship Between COVID-19 Cases of Turkey and Some Countries

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 17, 513 - 525, 29.08.2022

Şenol Demirci

https://doi.org/10.38079/igusabder.987254

Öz

Aim: This study aimed to examine the lag relationship between COVID-19 daily case numbers per million people per day in Turkey and countries where the highest number of visitors come to Turkey during the third wave of COVID-19 cases in the world.
Method: The study included the 30 countries with the highest numbers of visitors to Turkey which included all forms of transportation. The lag relationship between case numbers was examined using cross-correlation analysis.
Results: Several weeks after the peak of cases in the Ukraine (r=0.80), Poland (r=0.81), Macedonia (r=0.78), Romania (r=0.77), Serbia (r=0.76), Bulgaria (r=0.73), Austria (r=0.71), Moldova (r=0.71), United Kingdom (r=0.53), France (r=0.52), Belgium (r=0.57), United States (r=0.57), Jordan (r=0.81), Libya (r=0.74), and Lebanon (r=0.64), it was determined that Turkey also had a peak and lagged relationship. It was found that cases in Turkey exhibited a similar trend in a similar period to Germany (r=0.69), Azerbaijan (r=0.93), Iraq (r=0.88), Iran (r=0.87), and the Netherlands (r=0.77). The results were statistically significant (p<0.05).
Conclusion: Visitors from countries where lagged relationships were determined in the study may affect the spread of the disease during the third wave of cases in Turkey. Therefore, the spread of the disease from different countries can be partially prevented with different solutions, such as not allowing visitors to Turkey from countries where there is a serious increase in the cases, allowing them to enter the country on condition of staying in quarantine, and monitoring symptoms after entering the country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19 pandemic cases correlation analysis

Kaynakça

  • Sağlık Bakanlığı. Covid-19 (Sars-Cov-2 Enfeksiyonu) Genel Bilgiler, Epidemioloji ve Tanı. Ankara: Bilimsel Danışma Kurulu Çalışması. https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/Eklenti/39551/0/covid-19rehberigenelbilgilerepidemiyolojivetanipdf.pdf. Yayınlanma Tarihi 7 Aralık 2020.
  • OECD. COVID-19: Protecting people and societies. https://www.oecd.org/inclusive-growth/resources/COVID-19-Protecting-people-and-societies.pdf. Erişim Tarihi 9 Ağustos 2021.
  • Desvars-Larrive A, Dervic E, Haug N, et al. A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to COVID-19. Scientific Data. 2020;7(1):1-9.
  • Haug N, Geyrhofer L, Londei A, et al. Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions. Nature Human Behaviour. 2020;4(12):1303-1312.
  • Hufnagel L, Brockmann D, Geisel T. Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2004;101(42):15124-15129.
  • Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2007;13(9):1288.
  • Cooper BS, Pitman RJ, Edmunds WJ, Gay NJ. Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza. PLoS Medicine. 2006;3(6):212.
  • Brockmann D, Helbing D. The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena. Science. 2013;342(6164):1337-1342.
  • Zhang Y, Zhang A, Wang J. Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China. Transport Policy. 2020;94:34-42.
  • Ribeiro SP, DÁttilo W, Barbosa DS, et al. Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained: Traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências. 2020;92.
  • Coelho MTP, Rodrigues JFM, Medina AM, et al. Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections. PeerJ. 2020;8:1-14.
  • Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science. 2020;368(6489):395-400.
  • Bloomberg. International Travel During Covid-19: Where Can You Go and Which Destinations Are Still Sealed Off. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/where-can-travel-coronavirus-update-restrictions-testing-quarantine/. Erişim Tarihi 11 Ağustos 2021.
  • Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı. Sınır İstatistikleri Aylık Bülteni. https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-283363/2021.html. Yayınlanma Tarihi Mayıs 2021. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. COVID-19 Dashboard. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Our World in Data. Total and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-and-daily-covid-cases-per-million?country=~OWID_WRL. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • SAGE Publishing. How-to Guide for IBM® SPSS® Statistics Software: Introduction. https://methods.sagepub.com/dataset/howtoguide/tscorrelation-in-aqs-2017. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Liu, C. The Sensitivity of a Test Based on Spearman's Rho in Cross-Correlation Change Point Problems. https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/etd/1336. Yayınlanma tarihi 2015. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Hayran M, Hayran M. Sağlık Araştırmaları İçin Temel İstatistik. Ankara: Omega Araştırma; 2018.
  • Maragakis LL. Coronavirus Second Wave? Why Cases Increase. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/first-and-second-waves-of-coronavirus. Erişim Tarihi 17 Ağustos 2021.
  • Akova M. Covid-19 İnfluenza İlişkisi. Türk Tabipler Birliği, Covid-19 pandemisi 6. ay değerlendirme raporu. 2020.
  • Kirby T. New variant of SARS-CoV-2 in UK causes surge of COVID-19. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. 2021;9(2):20-21.
  • WHO. An update on SARS-CoV-2 virus mutations & variants. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update47-sars-cov-2-variants.pdf?sfvrsn=f2180835_4. Erişim Tarihi 17 Ağustos 2021.
  • WHO. Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 22 June 2021. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---22-june-2021. Erişim Tarihi 17 Ağustos 2021.
  • Cov-lineages. B.1.1.7. https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.1.7.html. Erişim Tarihi 18 Ağustos 2021.
  • O'Toole Á, Hill V, Pybus OG, et al. Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B. 1.1. 7 and B. 1.351/501Y-V2. Wellcome Open Research. 2021;6.
  • Pérez-Lago L, Sola Campoy PJ, Buenestado-Serrano S, et al. Epidemiological, clinical and genomic snapshot of the first 100 B. 1.1. 7 SARS-CoV-2 cases in Madrid. Journal of Travel Medicine. 2021;28(4):1-4.
  • Pattabiraman C, Prasad P, George AK, et al. Importation, circulation, and emergence of variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the South Indian State of Karnataka. Wellcome Open Research. 2021;6(110):110.
  • Di Giallonardo F, Puglia I, Curini V, et al. Emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B. 1.1. 7 and P. 1 in Italy. Viruses. 2021;13(5):794.
  • Seong H, Hyun HJ, Yun JG, et al. Comparison of the second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea: Importance of early public health intervention. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2021;104:742-745.
  • WHO. Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 23 March 2021. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---23-march-2021. Yayınlanma tarihi 23 Mart 2021. Erişim Tarihi 19 Ağustos 2021.
  • Younes M, Hamze K, Nassar H, et al. Emergence and fast spread of B. 1.1. 7 lineage in Lebanon. medRxiv. 2021.
  • Sivil Havacılık Genel Müdürlüğü. Covid-19 Tedbirleri Kapsamında Ülkelere Giriş Tablosu. https://web.shgm.gov.tr/. Yayınalnma tarihi 28 Mart 2021. Erişim tarihi 2021.
  • Lai D, Cai Y, Chan TH, et al. How to organise travel restrictions in the new future: Lessons from the COVID-19 response in Hong Kong and Singapore. BMJ Global Health. 2022;7(2):1-10.
  • Kucharski AJ, Jit M, Logan JG, et al. Travel measures in the SARS-CoV-2 variant era need clear objectives. The Lancet. 2022;399(10333):1367-1369.

Türkiye ile Bazı Ülkelerin COVID-19 Vaka Sayıları Arasındaki Gecikmeli İlişkinin Çapraz Korelasyon Analizi ile İncelenmesi

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 17, 513 - 525, 29.08.2022

Şenol Demirci

https://doi.org/10.38079/igusabder.987254

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmada, Dünya’da COVID-19 vaka sayısında üçüncü dalganın yaşandığı dönemde Türkiye’ye en fazla ziyaretçinin geldiği ülkeler ile Türkiye’nin günlük bir milyon kişi başına düşen COVID-19 vaka sayıları arasındaki gecikmeli ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır.
Yöntem: Bütün ulaşım yolları dahil olmak üzere Türkiye’ye en fazla ziyaretçinin geldiği ilk 30 ülke çalışma kapsamına alınmıştır. Vaka sayıları arasındaki gecikmeli ilişki çapraz korelasyon analizi kullanılarak belirlenmiştir.
Bulgular: Ukrayna (r=0,80), Polonya (r=0,81), Makedonya (r=0,78), Romanya (r=0,77), Sırbistan (r=0,76), Bulgaristan (r=0,73), Avusturya (r=0,71), Moldova (r=0,71), Birleşik Krallık (r=0,53), Fransa (r=0,52), Belçika (r=0,57), Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (r=0,57), Ürdün (r=0,81), Libya (r=0,74) ve Lübnan’da (r=0,64) vaka sayılarının pik yapmasından haftalar sonra Türkiye’de de pik gerçekleştirdiği ve gecikmeli ilişkinin olduğu saptanmıştır. Türkiye’de vaka sayılarının Almanya (r=0,69), Azerbaycan (r=0,93), Irak (r=0,88), İran (r=0,87) ve Hollanda (r=0,77) ile benzer zaman aralıklarında benzer bir trend sergilediği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuçlar istatistiki açıdan anlamlıdır (p<0,05).
Sonuç: Türkiye’de vaka sayılarında üçüncü dalganın yaşandığı dönemde, çalışma kapsamında gecikmeli ilişki tespit edilen ülkelerden gelen ziyaretçilerin hastalığın toplum içerisinde yayılımında etkisi olabilir. Bu bakımdan vaka sayılarında ciddi artışların olduğu ülkelerden Türkiye’ye gelen ziyaretçilerin ülkeye girişlerine izin verilmemesi, karantinada kalma koşulu ile girişine izin verilmesi, ülkeye girişten sonra semptom takibinin yapılması gibi farklı çözümler ile farklı ülkelerden hastalığın taşınması kısmi olarak engellenebilir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

COVID-19 salgın vaka sayıları korelasyon analizi

Kaynakça

  • Sağlık Bakanlığı. Covid-19 (Sars-Cov-2 Enfeksiyonu) Genel Bilgiler, Epidemioloji ve Tanı. Ankara: Bilimsel Danışma Kurulu Çalışması. https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/Eklenti/39551/0/covid-19rehberigenelbilgilerepidemiyolojivetanipdf.pdf. Yayınlanma Tarihi 7 Aralık 2020.
  • OECD. COVID-19: Protecting people and societies. https://www.oecd.org/inclusive-growth/resources/COVID-19-Protecting-people-and-societies.pdf. Erişim Tarihi 9 Ağustos 2021.
  • Desvars-Larrive A, Dervic E, Haug N, et al. A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to COVID-19. Scientific Data. 2020;7(1):1-9.
  • Haug N, Geyrhofer L, Londei A, et al. Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions. Nature Human Behaviour. 2020;4(12):1303-1312.
  • Hufnagel L, Brockmann D, Geisel T. Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2004;101(42):15124-15129.
  • Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM. Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2007;13(9):1288.
  • Cooper BS, Pitman RJ, Edmunds WJ, Gay NJ. Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza. PLoS Medicine. 2006;3(6):212.
  • Brockmann D, Helbing D. The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena. Science. 2013;342(6164):1337-1342.
  • Zhang Y, Zhang A, Wang J. Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China. Transport Policy. 2020;94:34-42.
  • Ribeiro SP, DÁttilo W, Barbosa DS, et al. Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained: Traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências. 2020;92.
  • Coelho MTP, Rodrigues JFM, Medina AM, et al. Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections. PeerJ. 2020;8:1-14.
  • Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science. 2020;368(6489):395-400.
  • Bloomberg. International Travel During Covid-19: Where Can You Go and Which Destinations Are Still Sealed Off. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/where-can-travel-coronavirus-update-restrictions-testing-quarantine/. Erişim Tarihi 11 Ağustos 2021.
  • Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı. Sınır İstatistikleri Aylık Bülteni. https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-283363/2021.html. Yayınlanma Tarihi Mayıs 2021. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. COVID-19 Dashboard. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Our World in Data. Total and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-and-daily-covid-cases-per-million?country=~OWID_WRL. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • SAGE Publishing. How-to Guide for IBM® SPSS® Statistics Software: Introduction. https://methods.sagepub.com/dataset/howtoguide/tscorrelation-in-aqs-2017. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Liu, C. The Sensitivity of a Test Based on Spearman's Rho in Cross-Correlation Change Point Problems. https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/etd/1336. Yayınlanma tarihi 2015. Erişim Tarihi 12 Ağustos 2021.
  • Hayran M, Hayran M. Sağlık Araştırmaları İçin Temel İstatistik. Ankara: Omega Araştırma; 2018.
  • Maragakis LL. Coronavirus Second Wave? Why Cases Increase. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/first-and-second-waves-of-coronavirus. Erişim Tarihi 17 Ağustos 2021.
  • Akova M. Covid-19 İnfluenza İlişkisi. Türk Tabipler Birliği, Covid-19 pandemisi 6. ay değerlendirme raporu. 2020.
  • Kirby T. New variant of SARS-CoV-2 in UK causes surge of COVID-19. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. 2021;9(2):20-21.
  • WHO. An update on SARS-CoV-2 virus mutations & variants. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update47-sars-cov-2-variants.pdf?sfvrsn=f2180835_4. Erişim Tarihi 17 Ağustos 2021.
  • WHO. Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 22 June 2021. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---22-june-2021. Erişim Tarihi 17 Ağustos 2021.
  • Cov-lineages. B.1.1.7. https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.1.7.html. Erişim Tarihi 18 Ağustos 2021.
  • O'Toole Á, Hill V, Pybus OG, et al. Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B. 1.1. 7 and B. 1.351/501Y-V2. Wellcome Open Research. 2021;6.
  • Pérez-Lago L, Sola Campoy PJ, Buenestado-Serrano S, et al. Epidemiological, clinical and genomic snapshot of the first 100 B. 1.1. 7 SARS-CoV-2 cases in Madrid. Journal of Travel Medicine. 2021;28(4):1-4.
  • Pattabiraman C, Prasad P, George AK, et al. Importation, circulation, and emergence of variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the South Indian State of Karnataka. Wellcome Open Research. 2021;6(110):110.
  • Di Giallonardo F, Puglia I, Curini V, et al. Emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B. 1.1. 7 and P. 1 in Italy. Viruses. 2021;13(5):794.
  • Seong H, Hyun HJ, Yun JG, et al. Comparison of the second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea: Importance of early public health intervention. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2021;104:742-745.
  • WHO. Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 23 March 2021. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---23-march-2021. Yayınlanma tarihi 23 Mart 2021. Erişim Tarihi 19 Ağustos 2021.
  • Younes M, Hamze K, Nassar H, et al. Emergence and fast spread of B. 1.1. 7 lineage in Lebanon. medRxiv. 2021.
  • Sivil Havacılık Genel Müdürlüğü. Covid-19 Tedbirleri Kapsamında Ülkelere Giriş Tablosu. https://web.shgm.gov.tr/. Yayınalnma tarihi 28 Mart 2021. Erişim tarihi 2021.
  • Lai D, Cai Y, Chan TH, et al. How to organise travel restrictions in the new future: Lessons from the COVID-19 response in Hong Kong and Singapore. BMJ Global Health. 2022;7(2):1-10.
  • Kucharski AJ, Jit M, Logan JG, et al. Travel measures in the SARS-CoV-2 variant era need clear objectives. The Lancet. 2022;399(10333):1367-1369.
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Klinik Tıp Bilimleri
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Şenol Demirci 0000-0001-8552-8151

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Ağustos 2022
Kabul Tarihi 9 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Sayı: 17

Kaynak Göster

JAMA Demirci Ş. Türkiye ile Bazı Ülkelerin COVID-19 Vaka Sayıları Arasındaki Gecikmeli İlişkinin Çapraz Korelasyon Analizi ile İncelenmesi. IGUSABDER. 2022;:513–525.
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