Research Article

Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis

Volume: 17 Number: April, May, June 2026 June 17, 2026

Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis

Abstract

Background: Technological disasters, including transport and industrial incidents, represent a significant but understudied component of the global disaster burden. Despite increasing industrialization and urbanization, comprehensive long term analyses at the country level remain limited. This study aimed to evaluate the distribution, mortality patterns, and temporal trends of technological disasters in Türkiye. Methods: This retrospective epidemiological study analyzed technological disasters recorded in the EM-DAT database between 1978 and 2025. Disasters were classified into transport, industrial, and miscellaneous categories, with further subtype analysis. Primary outcomes included the distribution of disaster types, total deaths, deaths per event, and temporal trends. Results: A total of 172 technological disasters were identified. Transport-related events accounted for the majority of cases (73.8%), with road accidents being the most frequent subtype (41.3%). Transport disasters contributed the highest total mortality (n=2,923), whereas industrial disasters demonstrated the highest mortality per event (49.3 deaths/event). Subtype analysis revealed that explosions and collapses were the most lethal mechanisms, with industrial explosions showing the highest mortality (60.4 deaths/event). Although disaster frequency increased over time, this trend was not statistically significant (\u03b2 = 0.044, p = 0.10), and no significant difference in mortality was observed across disaster types (Kruskal\u2013Wallis H = 0.621, p = 0.733). Mortality per event declined over time, from 36.4 deaths per event (1978\u20131989) to 24.3 (2010\u20132025). Conclusion: Technological disasters in Türkiye are predominantly transport-related in frequency, while industrial disasters carry the highest lethality. The findings demonstrate a decoupling between disaster frequency and mortality, with overall mortality driven by rare, high-impact events. Prioritizing high-lethality mechanisms, particularly industrial explosions and structural failures, may improve disaster risk reduction strategies.

Keywords

References

  1. 1. Altintas E, Ataman AK, Ongar M. Characteristics of technological disasters. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2024;18:e197. doi:10.1017/dmp.2024.167
  2. 2. Delforge D, Wathelet V, Below R, et al. EM-DAT: the Emergency Events Database. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2025;124:105509. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105509
  3. 3. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database [Internet]. Brussels: UCLouvain; 2025 [cited 2026 Mar 28]. Available from: https://www.emdat.be
  4. 4. Fernández García A, Gan RK, Cernuda Martínez JA, et al. Technological disasters in Asia: epidemiological profile from the year 2000 to 2021. Public Health Nurs. 2024;41:1544-1550. doi:10.1111/phn.13419
  5. 5. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Technological disasters: trends and transport accidents. CRED Crunch Newsletter, Issue No. 65 [Internet]. Brussels: UCLouvain; 2022 [cited 2026 Mar 28]. Available from: https://www.cred.be/sites/default/files/CredCrunch65.pdf
  6. 6. Isik V, Isikhan SY. Trend analysis of occupational accidents during 2013–2020 based on various characteristics in Turkey. Work. 2025;81:2086-2096. doi:10.1177/10519815241300297
  7. 7. Shen G, Hwang SN. Revealing global hot spots of technological disasters: 1900–2013. J Risk Res. 2018;21:361-393. doi:10.1080/136 69877.2016.1179214
  8. 8. Iqbal U, Perez P, Barthelemy J. A process-driven and need-oriented framework for review of technological contributions to disaster management. Heliyon. 2021;7:e08405. doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2021. e08405

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Emergency Medicine, Disaster Nursing

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

June 17, 2026

Submission Date

April 23, 2026

Acceptance Date

June 1, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 17 Number: April, May, June 2026

APA
Öcal, M. (2026). Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis. Acıbadem Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi, 17(April, May, June 2026). https://doi.org/10.31067/acusaglik.1936838
AMA
1.Öcal M. Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis. Acibadem Univ Saglik Bilim Derg. 2026;17(April, May, June 2026). doi:10.31067/acusaglik.1936838
Chicago
Öcal, Mustafa. 2026. “Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis”. Acıbadem Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi 17 (April, May, June 2026). https://doi.org/10.31067/acusaglik.1936838.
EndNote
Öcal M (June 1, 2026) Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis. Acıbadem Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi 17 April, May, June 2026
IEEE
[1]M. Öcal, “Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis”, Acibadem Univ Saglik Bilim Derg, vol. 17, no. April, May, June 2026, June 2026, doi: 10.31067/acusaglik.1936838.
ISNAD
Öcal, Mustafa. “Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis”. Acıbadem Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi 17/April, May, June 2026 (June 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.31067/acusaglik.1936838.
JAMA
1.Öcal M. Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis. Acibadem Univ Saglik Bilim Derg. 2026;17. doi:10.31067/acusaglik.1936838.
MLA
Öcal, Mustafa. “Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis”. Acıbadem Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 17, no. April, May, June 2026, June 2026, doi:10.31067/acusaglik.1936838.
Vancouver
1.Mustafa Öcal. Long-Term Trends and Mortality Patterns of Technological Disasters in Türkiye: An EM-DAT-Based Analysis. Acibadem Univ Saglik Bilim Derg. 2026 Jun. 1;17(April, May, June 2026). doi:10.31067/acusaglik.1936838